We have seen a rise in such cases recently where innocent civilians are the targets. Yet, if you were to search for any recent papers issued by Europol, EU Commission, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) or even the International Centre for Counter Terrorism (ICCT) you may struggle to find anything written within the last two or three years.

I did find one article that was published just over a year ago - Malthaner S, O’Connor F, Lindekilde L. Scattered Attacks: The Collective Dynamics of Lone-Actor Terrorism. Perspectives on Politics. 2024;22(2):463-480. doi:10.1017/S1537592723002852.

One thing they all have in common is that they all fail to identify a comprehensive profile of ‘the lone actor’.

In the Magdeburg Christmas market attack, predictably the press reported that “the suspect showed signs of mental illness” but was it the dreaded “health and safety police” who insisted on an entry point to the market which was reserved for emergency vehicles, thereby providing a way in and an exit from the scene. Did this override any risk assessment made which would have taken account of previous such incidents in 2022 and 2016?

Today we hear of the New Orleans attack that killed at least 15 and injured many more. The latest thinking is that investigators (predictably) do not believe that the attacker was acting alone.

These examples of violent extremism are difficult to prevent because of the absence of traditional indicators that could be used universally as part of an individuals behavioural risk profile. Lone actors will not announce their intentions (although sometimes they publish something just before they commit their heinous acts). They will have diverse motivations such as political, religious beliefs, personal grievances or a combination of both.

Is it time to review how the internet and social media can influence individuals and push them towards radical thinking, extremist content and away from personal relationships or confrontations with friends or family leaving them isolated?

There is no one single answer to crowd safety and the potential for lone actor terror events but in 2023 the Australians came up with the concept of “the Swiss cheese model” that use multiple layers of safety measures to prevent accidents with crowds.

I believe that repeating incidences of lone terror attacks in crowded venues is an avoidable failure. Just because someone does not think it will happen to them does not mean it might happen.